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Melbourne’s housing supply outlook

Melbournes Housing supply outlook

Contrary to what’s been broadly reported over the last few years, Melbourne’s over-supply concerns are not contained to its well documented CBD apartment market. Our supply heat map illustrates that almost the entire fifteen kilometre Melbourne ring has excess supply in the pipeline.

For the ten-year period to the end of 2011, there were 35,226 new dwellings approved in Greater-Melbourne each year. Greater-Melbourne building approvals (housing supply) for the last two financial years is averaging 53,690 dwellings per annum.

Greater-Melbourne’s population has grown by 182,538 people over the last two years [ABS]. This equates to underlining housing demand of 70,207 dwellings, or 35,103 per annum. Basic mathematics suggests that the current housing supply-demand pipeline has a surplus of 37,174 dwellings. If every approved dwelling was constructed this is a big enough surplus to accommodate an entire city the size of Ballarat.

There has been a distinct trend towards more apartments, with attached dwellings representing fifty-six per cent (56%) of all building approvals over the last four (4) years, up from the thirty-five per cent (35%) ten-year average.

Melbourne City is on track to approving 19,000 CBD apartments over the last three years; this is an increase of 158% on the annual average from the previous five years. The Melbourne LGA population growth is just shy of 6,000 people per annum and equates to demand for 3,000 extra dwellings compared to the recent average annual supply of 6,300 CBD dwellings. Houston, we have a (big) problem!

Sixteen out of Greater-Melbourne’s 31 LGA’s have approved more than fifty per cent more dwellings than normal, even though Melbourne’s population growth rate has remained relatively the same.

Recent average annual rates of supply have more than doubled the long-term average in the LGA’s of Darebin, Glen Eira, Manningham, Maribyrnong, Stonnington and Yarra. And, between 50% and 100% increases in building approvals are unfolding in the LGA’s of Banyule, Bayside, Boroondara, Greater-Dandenong, Hume, Knox, Maroondah, Moonee Valley, Moreland and Port Phillip.

This article was written by Simon Pressley of Propertyology, an REIA Hall Of Fame Inductee, property market analyst, accredited property investment adviser and Buyer’s Agent

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